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Thread: Over Thinking?

  1. #1
    T Dog is offline PNW Lurker
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    Default Over Thinking?

    OK Ok Ok
    So my online play can improve by playin MORE tables at once where I end up with MORE decisions to make MORE often!
    As I have little or no visual clues on any player because we are online and almost completely anonymous, the decisions I make have to be 99% based upon player history (almost nil because fairly new to online) and MATHS!
    Pre Flop I can do!
    After the Flop, I am faced with even more unanswered questions! Mostly based on Maths and the odds I am getting from calling or betting.

    Due to a few years of mostly live play, I am obviously able to quickly work out most PRE FLOP answers, its the answers after I've been called and the flop hits the felt that I struggle to find quickly and believe I am giving away hands that I should be playing due to this. Some are completely obv, like i have mid pockets and board is all pictures! And then the other way where you flop the monster or even nuts, however these times are in the minority and unless I can work out the odds for the rest, I fold the hand. I'm not saying I can't calculate the odds, just I'm not yet quick enough.

    So my question is this:
    What (if anything) can I do to "simplify" the maths so the answers to these questions come quickly and easily?
    Everyone has a photographic memory, some just don't have film.

  2. #2
    hip
    hip is offline Banned
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    Pot odds...in a nutshell (not spot on but close)

    1) Calculate no. of outs.
    For example, if you have an open ender straight draw you will have 8 outs.
    - Hero: J,10
    - Board: KQ3
    - Outs: A or 9 (total of 8 outs)

    2) x2 (always x2)
    - 8 outs x 2=16

    3) x no. of cards to come.
    -On the flop (with an open-ender straight draw) you have 2 cards to come (turn+river), therfore=x2. 16x2=32%

    -On the turn you have 1 card to come (river), therefore=x1. 16x1=16%

  3. #3
    whitey9999 is offline PNW Amateur
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    Well theres always the rule of 4 and 2 -
    Quite simply multiply your outs by 4 after flop or 2 after turn to get ur percentage of improving your hand

  4. #4
    hip
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    Ok, so here's a test for you op.

    in a limped pot (seems like everyone is holding junk), the board comes out:



    You are holding:

    what would you say your odds of winning are heads up against a villan in the blind who just bet out.

  5. #5
    Tony's Avatar
    Tony is offline PNW Elite
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    I would win no questions asked!

  6. #6
    ship2me is offline PNW Lurker
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    meh
    You're a 60% fav , I'd say at a qik calc.

    Irrespective of other holdings

    Quote Originally Posted by hip View Post
    Ok, so here's a test for you op.

    in a limped pot (seems like everyone is holding junk), the board comes out:



    You are holding:

    what would you say your odds of winning are heads up against a villan in the blind who just bet out.
    Last edited by ship2me; 25-02-2010 at 03:57 AM.

  7. #7
    whitey9999 is offline PNW Amateur
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    After ppl have had a crack can you explain it, Coz I got 84% doing it your way and the app on my iphone says its 66% if villain hit and 80% if they didnt

    3 J + 3 10 + 9 h + 3 Q + 3 7 = 21 outs

    21*2*2= 84%

    Seems a little high
    Last edited by whitey9999; 25-02-2010 at 04:03 AM.

  8. #8
    Zutroy's Avatar
    Zutroy is offline PNW Amateur
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    80% is just ridiculous, you can’t just assume that they’re all outs, as the following holdings in your opponent’s hand, mean you lose the accompanying outs.

    89 – a single J or T are now no good.
    T7 – J now makes a straight
    67 – T now makes a straight
    Ahxh, Khxh or Qhxh – hearts are now no good.

    Obv all of these aren’t going to happen at the same time, but in a limped pot, many are possible.

    I don’t know what the number should be, but this definitely needs to be taken into account.
    He had a lot to say. He had a lot of nothing to say.

  9. #9
    hip
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    [ ]good example used.

    the example i used wasn't a good one. there are to many outs which blows out margin of error.

    But in this example, if we take the villan and assume he has a 9 with no overcards or draws then:

    Jh Th 682 68.89 308 31.11 0 0.00 0.689
    9s 4s 308 31.11 682 68.89 0 0.00 0.311

    New example:

    ah kh

    on a board of:

    6h,4h,10c

    assuming he has a pair, what is your odds?

  10. #10
    whitey9999 is offline PNW Amateur
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    Default Re: Over Thinking?

    3 A + 3 K + 9 hearts = 15 outs

    60%

    Sounds a bit more realistic then the last one

    I was told you cant take into account the other person's hand when calculating outs, so its basically a calculation on improving your hand ?

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