Have I just woken up really nitty this morning?

[risk2Dupside]

It's the 3r post-addon...villain is a random. Thoughts on turn check and river fold please.

PokerStars Game #36825156380: Tournament #239010514, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/12/18 7:44:51 AEST [2009/12/17 15:44:51 ET]
Table '239010514 282' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JoaoNeves6 (6186 in chips)
Seat 2: FFIX-FTW (9389 in chips)
Seat 3: force3rd1 (3540 in chips)
Seat 4: D!veman (8376 in chips)
Seat 5: Sharkie64 (8583 in chips)
Seat 6: risk2Dupside (6660 in chips)
Seat 7: Dirk H. (10435 in chips)
Seat 8: NUT3UK (5475 in chips)
Seat 9: eve183 (12977 in chips)
force3rd1: posts small blind 75
D!veman: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to risk2Dupside [Ah Ad]
Sharkie64: folds
risk2Dupside: raises 225 to 375
Dirk H.: folds
NUT3UK: calls 375
eve183: folds
JoaoNeves6: folds
FFIX-FTW: folds
force3rd1: folds
D!veman: calls 225
*** FLOP *** [Kd 6h Qc]
D!veman: checks
risk2Dupside: bets 765
NUT3UK: calls 765
D!veman: calls 765
*** TURN *** [Kd 6h Qc] [Td]
D!veman: checks
risk2Dupside: checks
NUT3UK: checks
*** RIVER *** [Kd 6h Qc Td] [8h]
D!veman: bets 1950
risk2Dupside: folds

The c/c out of the blinds made me think he was on a draw or had a weak made hand, and most draws/WMHs either got there or improved to two pair on the turn. He bombs the river pretty hard and I wanna look him up but can't realistically see him betting worse..like sure maybe he v-bets AQ/KJ here but doubt he bets that much and I think more often a weak player is going to c/c river, and there are way more combos of AJ/KQ/KT that play out like this.

[Scott Wilson]

now i'm on tilt. thanks a lot. nothing you did wrong here, but i want to kick something and it's not even 9am...

[Scott Wilson]

actually re-reading the hand i think you are in front here +50% of the time and i find a call on the river. if he has it gl to him.

the only hands he can have that check behind you on the turn are AJ/J9 or weaker than AA. two pr and set bet for value/protection after you check on the turn. 8 looks like a brick and i doubt it's changed the hand (K8s? maybe).

[risk2Dupside]

actually re-reading the hand i think you are in front here +50% of the time and i find a call on the river. if he has it gl to him.

the only hands he can have that check behind you on the turn are AJ/J9 or weaker than AA. two pr and set bet for value/protection after you check on the turn. 8 looks like a brick and i doubt it's changed the hand (K8s? maybe).

Does it change your response if I confirm that Diveman is OOP, and therefore isn't checking 'behind' on the turn? Agree the river card is a brick.

[djkelly69]

i usually call, but AK, KJ or bluffs seem to be about all we beat.

fold and dont tell imo.

also i still 3x it pre this early.

[Zutroy]

Risk, why no bet on the turn? Won�t a bet here really give you more of an idea where you are, instead of a bit of a guess on the river? Or is the pot too big at ~3500 to make a feeler bet when you�re only sitting on ~5500, and there are 2 others in the pot?

[risk2Dupside]

Risk, why no bet on the turn? Won’t a bet here really give you more of an idea where you are, instead of a bit of a guess on the river? Or is the pot too big at ~3500 to make a feeler bet when you’re only sitting on ~5500, and there are 2 others in the pot?

Yeah I'm too short to be betting turn and not getting it in (and I still have an ok reship stack if I fold), villains should all know this so I'm only folding out worse (of which there is very little imo) and I just wanna get to a cheap showdown at this point.

[sidepocketkid]

I'd rasie 3x pre, and bet close to pot on the flop.

But i think you hit the nail on the head with the subject of the thread. You probably just woke up a little nitty.

He either rivered two pair or you have him beat IMO, so I'd call.

Stoved it below. His range might be a bit off...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

159 games 0.005 secs 31,800 games/sec

Board: Kd 6h Qc Td 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.830% 52.83% 00.00% 84 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 47.170% 47.17% 00.00% 75 0.00 { 88, 66, AQs-ATs, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, AQo-ATo, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+ }

[risk2Dupside]

- I open 2.2-2.5x from the 50/100 onward

- I'm betting smalllish on the flop to induce shoves with draws, I'm not worried about people calling with draws (initially) since I have blockers and can bet to commit myself on non-scare card turns

- The problem with your stove analysis is twofold, firstly some of those hands probably never check/call the flop (eg. 66, the weak Jx hands), and secondly the weak one pair hands bet the river far less than 100% of the time, so we are far from flipping against his river betting range imo

[djkelly69]

sidepocket, that stove is way to broad for the river. we should have narrowed his range significantly by this point. ie. QQ+, 66, AK, KJ, KT, AJ, JT seem most likely.

you could probably even weight these if you wanted to get really keen.

risk, i think you may be giving random 3r'ers too much credit here.