$2/$4 PLO stats analysis

[tsapy]

SB ($411)
BB ($400)
BTN ($160)

SB posts (SB) $2
BB posts (BB) $4

Dealt to BB
fold, fold, fold,
BTN raises to $14
SB calls $12
BB calls $10

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BTN steals 18% from CO and 38% from BTN which is fairly tight in PLO
SB has a VPIP > 52%

My hand is def a fold HU against the BTN, but 3-way I think we are getting odds to see a flop and hence have a discussion on our hands

FLOP ($42)
SB checks
BB checks
BTN bets $42
SB calls $42
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BTN c-bets 72%. Pretty irrelevant on this board since it is very draw heavy, BTN is shortstacked and obv has a hand that wants to get it in (big overpair minimum).

SB has an aggr. factor of 1.1, which is fairly passive. IMO, SB flats flush draws with or without pairs, some good straight draws / wraps.

I have top-two + 1 over card and a back door flush draw.
Given that, do I check-raise the flop, flat, or should I have lead?

[davidwrunner]

Typical example of why Omaha is giving me ulcers!

U cant fold without wearing a skirt for the rest of the day.
If u raise button will go all in - justabout giving sb the odds to call with his draw/s
U can flat and hope for a safe turn and then pot - but there arent many safe cards.

Maybe I'm too passive but I flat and hope 4 a brick.

(On reflection maybe a fold isnt that bad - u are a dog against 2 hands if it all goes in on the flop and your redraws are pretty poor )

[tsapy]

davidwrunner, at the time I was thinking along those same lines. So I played it like that.
If I could play the hand again, I would raise the flop by check-raising (especially true when this particular SB has cold called a c-bet) or lead small and re-raise.
--------------------------------------------------
BB calls $42

TURN ($168)

SB checks
BB checks
BTN bets $104 (AI)
SB calls $104
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Now the pot has ballooned to $376 and it's $104 to call with a hand that could have 12 outs if we're behind (flush draw & 2 pair).
Or we could shove for an extra $240 to build a side pot with the SB, if we believe we are ahead.
Or we could fold.

[davidwrunner]

If the sb has some sort of wrap - say 9 10 q x with no clubs - he is a fav against your hand -

kk65 - 11.4% ( worst hand he can have?)
9 10 q 2 - 49.4% (without a pair or a fd)
you - 39%

On the flop u have only invested $14 - but are now keen to risk $400 with a hand that may be leading now but is easily overtaken.

Do some more calcs on vill ranges - I'm not convinced on your new plan - ( results biased?) - unless the sb will fold - but he wont fold a fd or a str8 dr

Maybe I'm to risk averse...

[flusher83]

I don't think I could fold that turn.
I would think you are ahead of SB calling range so I pot the turn to build a side pot.

[SwoopAE]

Check-pot the flop, get it in against the short stack's overpair and pray he doesnt have a NFD with it

If the other guy comes along with his draws, hope to run good in the sidepot flip.

Stacks arent super deep and you can commit with a checkraise so do it. The caller might be as weak as a naked NFD or 10-out wrap or something.

Disclaimer - I mostly play PLO tourneys, not cash