Unusual 3bet Shove in Early $150 FO on Stars

[Republican]

Hey guys,

Background info:

~30 people - Nothing extraordinay happening. I've raised button last 2 orbits with quebinito in BB (SB bustod so new blinds for my button), the first time I bet/called the flop and shoved over his turn bet and took it w/o showdown. Second time I won it, checked all streets back and bet river and again took it w/o showdown. Villain is winning player obv, no reads, havent played with him yet and havent played with him before..seems to be a tigher reg.



PokerStars Game #41364589839: Tournament #302011254, $150+$12 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (700/1400) - 2010/03/19 11:04:55 AEST [2010/03/18 20:04:55 ET]
Table '302011254 44' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: kleath (67327 in chips)
Seat 2: Remko26 (18394 in chips)
Seat 3: henri72 (13578 in chips)
Seat 4: germain133 (24335 in chips)
Seat 5: HERO (42844 in chips)
Seat 7: quebonito (65867 in chips)
Seat 8: LuigCorleone (92032 in chips)
Seat 9: WatchOutFish (32694 in chips)
kleath: posts the ante 175
Remko26: posts the ante 175
henri72: posts the ante 175
germain133: posts the ante 175
HERO: posts the ante 175
quebonito: posts the ante 175
LuigCorleone: posts the ante 175
WatchOutFish: posts the ante 175
quebonito: posts small blind 700
LuigCorleone: posts big blind 1400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [9c Ts]
WatchOutFish: folds
kleath: folds
Remko26: folds
henri72: folds
germain133: folds
HERO: raises 1800 to 3200
quebonito: calls 2500
LuigCorleone: calls 1800
*** FLOP *** [3c 5d 8c]
quebonito: checks
LuigCorleone: checks
HERO: checks
*** TURN *** [3c 5d 8c] [7s]
quebonito: bets 4200
LuigCorleone: raises 7000 to 11200
HERO: raises 28269 to 39469 and is all-in


So I don't do crazy stuff like this often but I thought this could be a spot where I try and be creative....

In terms of my rationality, I didn't want to c-bet flop as Villain had called pre as well, I've raised a few buttons and taken it down all the time, I felt this board was perfect for a c/r or a smooth call with the intention of taking it down on a later street. Turn gives me open ended draw as well as possible overs, I was planning on smoothing SB's bet, but once he was raised I figured there could be some bluffing going on and the stacks are just right for me to shove with significant fold equity esp. considering what I'm representing (I think a set??). I dont think they can put me on a naked flush draw because I would barrel flop than.

Please let me know your thoughts as to the unsual line I took.


Thanks

[HelloJohnny]

Which set are you representing? 77? I don't think anyone will believe that you checked a flopped set on this board.

The BB should have a pretty big hand here - occasionally he will be just trying to move the SB off his steal attempt, but you are getting called the vast majority of the time here IMO. Even if he's semi-bluffing with 76, you are dog and he's not folding getting about 2:1.

Then there's the chance that SB flopped a set and was going for a flop CR.

NH if it worked, but I wouldn't have thought that bluffing when it's a bet and a raise to you and the blinds will be defending wide-ish PF is +EV on this board. I could be wrong though!!

[TurnRiva]

I dont like it at all, you're trying to tell a story that makes no sense

[SwoopAE]

I dont like it at all, you're trying to tell a story that makes no sense

This, BB usually has a hand and often calls even one pair stuff since you're laying him good odds and your story makes no sense

Fold turn as played. If you're going to stab, stab on the flop when you can actually rep an overpair

[risk2Dupside]

Been discussing this elsewhere after thinking it was spewy at first glance. I think it's fair that BB is raising based on SB's range (which is wide), and at this point has never considered that you will continue with the hand.

BB is obviously raising sets, straights, and two pair combos, which you have various equity against when he calls your shove. He is also probably raising weak draws (pair+gutshot, openenders) which he will fold to a shove, and may or may not raise strong draws (various combos of flush draws)... he has a lot of equity with strong draws and probably won't want to fold SB out of the hand. There are also maybe a few one pair hands that unless he is a complete spastic he will probably fold (but was probably flatting SB on the turn with tbh).

So it simply comes down to how many combos of sets/straights/two pair there are in his raising range, and our equity vs those when called, compared to how many combos of weak draws he is raise/folding for us to scoop free chips. Point is - if he is a decent player, there are actually a lot of hands he raise/folds here.

I want to have a crack at doing the math on it later, and not all of the above thoughts are mine, but others got me convinced it's actually a pretty cool hand.

[TurnRiva]

I mean it has merit, I just dont know if it's going to come out profitable long term. I just dont think there's a strong hand you check behind on the flop into two players, and a anyone competent should be able to figure that out.

[dave798111]

I mean it has merit, I just dont know if it's going to come out profitable long term. I just dont think there's a strong hand you check behind on the flop into two players, and a anyone competent should be able to figure that out.

Well yeah clearly we didn't have a strong hand on the flop. We are repping a turned strong hand (77, 69, 57, maybe 78). I had typed up a long post but lost it somehow. Basically when you jam turn here you have a turned strong hand or a draw. You are going to be jamming 77 and 69 100% of the time, 78 most of the time and 57 some of the time. There really aren't that many draws that you can have, that you would have checked flop with - basically just 910, 36, 56 and 68. And you certainly aren't going to be jamming them anywhere near 100% of the time. So really I think the better your villains can handread, the more profitable this jam is going to be. I don't know a lot about the two villains here but generally I guess we should assume MTT regs aren't great handreaders.

So that would suggest not jamming. However as Risk said I think BB can be raising here with a pretty wide range. Really I think he either has a nutted hand or he is intending to fold to a SB jam - I odn't think he raises his strong draws cos he won't be getting the right price to call a jam. So there aren't going to be that many hands where he has a tough decision as to whether or not to call your shove - probably just the two pair hands.

Overall ingame I think if BB is raising for value, intending to snap off a SB jam, he is calling your jam too. He probably shouldn't be calling with his whole value range but I think he will be unless he is a v good handreader relative to other MTT regs.

Soooo I guess unfortunately this jam is gonna probably be -EV. However if BB is say Westmenlo I would really like it.

[risk2Dupside]

Since I am letting my pasta sauce simmer and I have fifteen minutes of time, let's assume the following....

- Villain raises sets, straights, weak draws and two pair hands, but folds weak draws to a shove
- Villain flats SB with flush draws and therefore never has these
- Villain flats SB with one pair hands and therefore never has these

Hands villain stacks off with

Sets - there are 12 combinations of sets which we have 18% equity against.

Two pair - If we assume he calls preflop with 87, 85 and 75, there are 27 combinations of two pair that we have 18% equity against.

Straights - assuming villain folds 96 and 64 pre, there are no possible made straights.

Hands villain raise/folds

Open ender combos - If we assume Villain also flat called preflop and would raise SB with 86, 76 and 65, there are another 36 combinations that he folds when we shove.

cEV calculation

Total possible hand combinations of Villain: 75
Total hand combinations villain calls with: 39 (52% of the time)
Average equity against calling range: 18%

Net chips gained when villain calls and we win: 54494
Net chips lost when villain calls and we lose: 39469

cEV = (0.52 x 0.18 x 54494) + (0.52 x 0.82 x -39469)
cEV = (5101 - 16830)
cEV = -11729

Total hand combinations villain folds: 36 (48% of the time)
Net chips gained when villain folds: 24825

cEV = +11916

Net cEV = +187

Criticism welcome on the math, I punched it out really quickly Based on these assumptions (and they are definitely open to debate), the move is pretty much neutral EV.

[TurnRiva]

That's a lot of numbers bro

[dave798111]

Since I am letting my pasta sauce simmer and I have fifteen minutes of time, let's assume the following....

- Villain raises sets, straights, weak draws and two pair hands, but folds weak draws to a shove
- Villain flats SB with flush draws and therefore never has these
- Villain flats SB with one pair hands and therefore never has these

Hands villain stacks off with

Sets - there are 12 combinations of sets which we have 18% equity against.

Two pair - If we assume he calls preflop with 87, 85 and 75, there are 27 combinations of two pair that we have 18% equity against.

Straights - assuming villain folds 96 and 64 pre, there are no possible made straights.

Hands villain raise/folds

Open ender combos - If we assume Villain also flat called preflop and would raise SB with 86, 76 and 65, there are another 36 combinations that he folds when we shove.

cEV calculation

Total possible hand combinations of Villain: 75
Total hand combinations villain calls with: 39 (52% of the time)
Average equity against calling range: 18%

Net chips gained when villain calls and we win: 54494
Net chips lost when villain calls and we lose: 39469

cEV = (0.52 x 0.18 x 54494) + (0.52 x 0.82 x -39469)
cEV = (5101 - 16830)
cEV = -11729

Total hand combinations villain folds: 36 (48% of the time)
Net chips gained when villain folds: 24825

cEV = +11916

Net cEV = +187

Criticism welcome on the math, I punched it out really quickly Based on these assumptions (and they are definitely open to debate), the move is pretty much neutral EV.

Don't think he raises turn with 68 nor maybe 67 - same reasoning as for why he doesn't raise FDs. However I think he will raise random 6s and some other gutters / virtual air sometimes so they probably make up for that. +167 chips doesn't seem like many!