I think he has a bigger set but I shove........

[Wonky]

This situation has happened a bazzillion times lately and im just wondering if anyone ever folds in this spot? What about if I had bottom set (22)? My thoughts before I shove were he prob bets AQ, AA, KK on the flop and might check QQ/22 and raise turn as he did so im prob up against a set often and possibly beat. BUt Im not good enough to fold middle set and jam thinking im up against QQ... What really can he raise turn with on such a dry board - up/down draw? QQ and maybe 22 but is he raising utg with 22? Possibly but prob not....so QQ most of the time, 22 and 33 sometimes and air and draws maybe 5-10% of the time ?
His stats were 22/18 PFR ep 16......

Thoughts from 1/2 and 2/4 grinders would be much appreciated....



Seat 1: flyingshark ($629.90)
Seat 2: Hero($324.40)
Seat 3: tru_zeno ($121.35)
Seat 4: galaktiko ($300.30), is sitting out
Seat 5: TwoGun1 ($115.80)
Seat 6: hbeni27 ($188.25)
Seat 7: Abesone ($236.95)
Seat 8: aabbccpoker ($43), is sitting out
Seat 9: barmaleyWW ($57.85), is sitting out
tru_zeno posts the small blind of $1
TwoGun1 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ts Th]
hbeni27 raises to $7
Abesone folds
flyingshark folds
Hero calls $7
tru_zeno folds
TwoGun1 folds
*** FLOP *** [2c Qh Td]
hbeni27 checks
Hero bets $10
hbeni27 calls $10
*** TURN *** [2c Qh Td] [3s]
hbeni27 checks
Hero bets $28
hbeni27 raises to $70
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to $307.40, and is all in
hbeni27 calls $101.25, and is all in
Hero shows [Ts Th]
hbeni27 shows [Qd Qs]
Uncalled bet of $136.15 returned to Hero
*** RIVER *** [2c Qh Td 3s] [9d]
Hero shows three of a kind, Tens
hbeni27 shows three of a kind, Queens
hbeni27 wins the pot ($376.50) with three of a kind, Queens
Hero adds $63.85
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $379.50 | Rake $3
Board: [2c Qh Td 3s 9d]
Seat 1: flyingshark didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Hero (button) showed [Ts Th] and lost with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 3: tru_zeno (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: galaktiko is sitting out
Seat 5: TwoGun1 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: hbeni27 showed [Qd Qs] and won ($376.50) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 7: Abesone didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: aabbccpoker is sitting out
Seat 9: barmaleyWW is sitting out

[Strong Play]

lol

[davidwrunner]

Less than 100 bb's - u r never folding here.

If this bothers u - are u playing too high?

[mehpkr]

My thoughts are that you should quit poker

[djkelly69]

giving him the absolute tightest possible range, we have easily enough equity to get it in.
Board: 2c Qh Td
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.894% 53.89% 00.00% 10671 0.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 46.106% 46.11% 00.00% 9129 0.00 { QQ, 22, QTs }

Add in QTo and we are 63%. Add in AA/KK and we are 78%.

do i need to go on?

[CNT_CRUSHER]

Thoughts from 1/2 and 2/4 grinders would be much appreciated.... The rest of you don't understand the games I play in

Thought I'd do Wonky a favour and prepare his response in advance

[Puzz]

If you think his UTG range is so tight that he folds 22, why are u calling pre with TT? Are u calling specifically to flop top set only? LOL

[dave798111]

table is 6-handed with the guys sitting out. Pretty sure most 22/18s are opening 22 UTG. I would say he has 22 or QQ pretty much always if he's a reg, but I think he probably has 22 more often as he would 3 ball QQ pre some of the time.

Also he's not fullstacked so maybe he's not a reg? In which case AA/KK/AQ/KQ/other random shit become possible.

In short definitely get it in.

edit: and I think some regs can play AA like this too.

[TurnRiva]

think they call it a cooler or something?

[HelloJohnny]

I would say he has 22 or QQ pretty much always if he's a reg, but I think he probably has 22 more often as he would 3 ball QQ pre some of the time.

wat