How often can I successfully bluff this river?

[risk2Dupside]

No dynamic though we both know of each other, thoughts on his river lead range and if he is ever bet/folding?

I checked back the flop because I don't think he ever calls worse, I flatted the turn mainly to see what he does on the river..I figured my flop check could rep Tx so he's not going to barrel the river too often. The river Q is kinda cool since I now chop with most Ax hands (assuming he threebets AK vs my button open) as well as making it less likely that Tx is the nuts.

I feel like most of his range should be check/calling river rather than betting here, and as such there is the potential we can punish him for it - does that make sense or am I way off?

PokerStars Game #47308210579: Tournament #323010681, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2010/07/27 7:00:00 AEST [2010/07/26 17:00:00 ET]
Table '323010681 3' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: risk2Dupside (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: RichieRich21 (3000 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: shanetrain22 (3000 in chips)
Seat 4: Hood_Ace (3000 in chips)
Seat 5: Busquin50 (3000 in chips)
Seat 6: ros1987 (3000 in chips)
Seat 7: mahowny777 (3000 in chips)
Seat 8: Titantom32 (3000 in chips)
Seat 9: JMaster130 (3000 in chips)
RichieRich21: posts small blind 10
shanetrain22: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to risk2Dupside [4s Ac]
Hood_Ace: folds
Busquin50: folds
ros1987: folds
mahowny777: folds
Titantom32: folds
JMaster130: folds
risk2Dupside: raises 40 to 60
RichieRich21: folds
shanetrain22: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [As Tc Th]
shanetrain22: checks
risk2Dupside: checks
*** TURN *** [As Tc Th] [3s]
shanetrain22: bets 90
risk2Dupside: calls 90
*** RIVER *** [As Tc Th 3s] [Qd]
shanetrain22: bets 220

[TurnRiva]

We have so much showdown equity, and doubt with that line he is ever really folding out an ace, I dont like a raise at all. We need to decide whehter a call is profitable vs his range, and it prob is.

[TurnRiva]

Dont know if that made sense just woke up

[risk2Dupside]

It makes sense, but it sounds like you're suggesting that turning our hand into a bluff isn't profitable in this situation, so we should just call to mostly chop or lose.... ?

re not folding an Ace.. idk if I agree.

[TurnRiva]

We dont think he's ever bluffing here? although the more i look at bet szing i agree. I just dont see the bluff working enough for it to be profitable vs his range. + dont know if we really fold out that many aces with our line this early

[TurnRiva]

I feel like late he is more likely to fold an ace than early.

[Strong Play]

you dont think he will peel the flop with rando broadways?

does he lead straight into a ten on the flop?

[risk2Dupside]

I feel that, by the river, his view on my range should be Tx and weak showdown hands (A2-A9, maybe 66-99) that have plenty of reasons to fold to any strong bet...

[Minesony]

since u checked back flop dont u think he can just try make u fold since ur range looks heaps weak?

[dave798111]

I feel that, by the river, his view on my range should be Tx and weak showdown hands (A2-A9, maybe 66-99) that have plenty of reasons to fold to any strong bet...

disagree completely with this. Arent you more likely to bet a 10 than an A on flop?

I think he has at least as many 10s in his flatting range pre as he does As. You have one of the As so he has a 10 as often as he has an ace imo. He is obv never folding a 10, so for a raise to be better than a call he has to fold an ace a very high % of the time. Like if you raise river to 680 he has to fold an ace 87% of the time (I think).

Also I think his turn and river sizing make him having a 10 even more likely.