What to do in this spot?

[SwoopAE]

Thanks Swoop.

Had a question for everyone, Whats a good sample size to determin if your profitable or not?

I'd say 50,000 hands is enough to say you are at least profitable if you're winning at a decent rate (like 5bb/100+)

If you're winning at 2bb/100 or something, 100k+ hands. The variance in PLO can be huge - 10bi daily swings in cash (in both directions) are very common if you put in a few thousand hands.

I still have no idea what my true winrate is in PLO and i've played a couple hundred thousand hands plus a few hundred MTTs. I know i'm beating the game, but since I didn't track a lot of my hands, the data is gone.

[SwoopAE]

FWIW you should have some idea of whether you have an edge or you're outclassed after about 20,000 hands though i'd say but the raw data itself is meaningless in determining your long term winrate over a sample that small.

[Tony]

I'd say 50,000 hands is enough to say you are at least profitable if you're winning at a decent rate (like 5bb/100+)

If you're winning at 2bb/100 or something, 100k+ hands. The variance in PLO can be huge - 10bi daily swings in cash (in both directions) are very common if you put in a few thousand hands.

I still have no idea what my true winrate is in PLO and i've played a couple hundred thousand hands plus a few hundred MTTs. I know i'm beating the game, but since I didn't track a lot of my hands, the data is gone.

FWIW you should have some idea of whether you have an edge or you're outclassed after about 20,000 hands though i'd say but the raw data itself is meaningless in determining your long term winrate over a sample that small.

Cheers Guys,

Wow thats alot of hands, thought 10K or 15K would be sufficient, almost on 3K now so a Loooooooong way to go yet.

[SwoopAE]

Cheers Guys,

Wow thats alot of hands, thought 10K or 15K would be sufficient, almost on 3K now so a Loooooooong way to go yet.

If you're beating the game for 15bb/100 or something then yeah its pretty safe to say you're profitable. The variance in PLO is huge though; i've played about 100k hands of cash and probably another 100k hands or so worth of MTTs and I still have no idea what type of winrate my actual expectation is. I'd imagine it's something like 7-8BB/100 at 100PLO to 200PLO online or infinity billion live, but it could be much higher or lower. Variance is huge in this game.

[SwoopAE]

Cheers Guys,

Wow thats alot of hands, thought 10K or 15K would be sufficient, almost on 3K now so a Loooooooong way to go yet.

Out of curiosity what are your results over the 3000 hands you have so far? If you don't want to say thats cool, just curious. How many tables do you play, if you can 3-4 table rush or play 8+ tables the hands will add up very quickly.