Did I play this right?

[martyal]

Hi
Just want to know if I was just unlucky in a coinflip or should I have not shoved all in over the top. The game was a $11 rebuy sattlelite to the $425 Anzpt Gold Coast sunday night game. Down to the last 5 with 2 seats and $210 for third. I felt that a re-raise all in would be enough to get the utg off his hand as he is at risk of losing half his stack and was kind of sitting pretty to get onto the top 3. Maybe the fact he was utg should have sent me a message. Are my five's just not worth going to war with.
Any help would be great.


*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #47472674033: Tournament #288080157, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2010/07/30 23:21:17 AEST [2010/07/30 9:21:17 ET]
Table '288080157 3' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: almarty67 (18409 in chips)
Seat 2: Finecotton (43407 in chips)
Seat 3: Pocket55ives (67456 in chips)
Seat 6: jbrhythm (7131 in chips)
Seat 8: Maoribey (43597 in chips)
almarty67: posts the ante 200
Finecotton: posts the ante 200
Pocket55ives: posts the ante 200
jbrhythm: posts the ante 200
Maoribey: posts the ante 200
Maoribey: posts small blind 1000
almarty67: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to almarty67 [5h 5c]
Finecotton: raises 6000 to 8000
Pocket55ives: folds
jbrhythm: folds
Maoribey: folds
almarty67: raises 10209 to 18209 and is all-in
Finecotton: calls 10209
*** FLOP *** [Ah Ad Td]
*** TURN *** [Ah Ad Td] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [Ah Ad Td 8h] [6s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
almarty67: shows [5h 5c] (two pair, Aces and Fives)
Finecotton: shows [Jd As] (three of a kind, Aces)
Finecotton collected 38418 from pot
almarty67 finished the tournament in 5th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 38418 | Rake 0
Board [Ah Ad Td 8h 6s]
Seat 1: almarty67 (big blind) showed [5h 5c] and lost with two pair, Aces and Fives
Seat 2: Finecotton showed [Jd As] and won (38418) with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 3: Pocket55ives folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: jbrhythm (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Maoribey (small blind) folded before Flop

[Scott Wilson]

probably only scratching the surface here...pls check for further posts

all of this assumes that there is no chance of villian folding to your raise, which seems a pretty safe assumption.

on the one hand you know you are flip at best (excluding a v unlikely 22-55, A2-A5, K2-K5 holding), on the other hand a double-up is very valuable , taking you from a weak stack to challenging for one of the 3 cash spots.

is this the best time to take a chance? unless you get hit by the deck it's time to take some chances. shoving certainly isn't a horrible play, but it seems -EV.

perhaps u have at most 40% here against his likely range (mid pairs, over cards). that's 18409 to invest to win 2*18409+4000 so you'd want odds of 46% or better to make this +EV. on that basis it's a fold. if you'd just posted the BB then the math would be 16409 into 16409*2+4000 or 45%. still no joy.

on balance i'm folding this and waiting for a better option. you have perhaps another orbit or two before you'll be forced to act. if you had to choose between these hand, or the best of ten random future hands, which option would u choose?

[Plow King]

Pretty sure the point of him opening 4X with 9bb is to commit himself to the hand. At best you're flipping. Plus you're joint 2nd with 2 shorties so ICM probqbly dictates a snap fold (If risk see's this and replies he'll give us some whack ICM reasoning)

IMO.

Edit - Beaten by Scott Wilson

[Gtrain24]

This is a snap fold pre.

You have no fold equity; and I'd say your equity vs UTGs 4x range is not great at all.

Then if you ask the satellite guys re: ICM etc I'd say this is probably a simple fold.

[Scott Wilson]

hmmm...i stuffed up the math.

in BB odds would be invest 16409 to win 16409+18409+4000 or 42%. still -EV

[moffo47]

Scott, this might be slightly +Cev... but there is no way in hell this is +$ev. Really should be folding here, and shoving the button/SB to accumulate chips imo, OP has to double once atleast, but I would imagine the bigstacks will play very incorrectly vs. one another.

[thret]

Down to the last 5 with 2 seats and $210 for third. I felt that a re-raise all in would be enough to get the utg off his hand as he is at risk of losing half his stack and was kind of sitting pretty to get onto the top 3. Maybe the fact he was utg should have sent me a message. Are my five's just not worth going to war with.
Any help would be great.

There is zero fold equity. This means you are actually calling all in with 55. It is better to open shove blind at the next opportunity than call here.

If you want to 'study' icm and bubbles, may I suggest you play some hyper-turbo sats. They are basically all bubble. A few thousand of those and you will be completely comfortable in all bubble situations.

[Scott Wilson]

Scott, this might be slightly +Cev... but there is no way in hell this is +$ev. Really should be folding here, and shoving the button/SB to accumulate chips imo, OP has to double once atleast, but I would imagine the bigstacks will play very incorrectly vs. one another.

um sry, yes even if this was a flip or even positive chip expected value, it must be -$ev (since winning the hand does not guarantee you a $payout, but losing it guarantees a loss....is that right?)

[moffo47]

Yeah that is right, stick this into SNGwiz or somethign similar to work the range you can profitably shove here, would be pretty interesting.

[martyal]

Thanks for the feedback. I seem to be getting myself busted on or near the bubble in these events all to often lately.
I'll keep grinding away.
cheers.