interesting spot

[risk2Dupside]

FTP 30r about ten off the money. Villain is my backer, we know each other's games well and he is running at 34/29 on the table and probably opening at least 25% of hands here. He probably has 15-20 tables and has almost certainly misclicked it to 4.5x since we don't have any dynamic going atm.

Seeing as people are always complaining about not learning enough in this forum/not seeing unique spots I thought I'd post it and maybe some of the guys still getting their heads around cEV might wanna have a crack and see if it's a profitable reshove or not.

Assume he realises I'm jamming lighter and is calling off any pair, A7s+/A9o+/KT+ (alternatively, put forth a case as to how light he should call). For the sake of simplicity assume BB always folds to the action.

Full Tilt Poker Game #30578385923: $10,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) (237292535), Table 14 - 400/800 Ante 100 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:19:19 AEST - 2011/05/19 [00:19:19 ET - 2011/05/19]
Seat 1: ptarso (80,486)
Seat 2: Rich taste1 (37,190)
Seat 3: risk2Dupside (18,972)
Seat 4: De_Ange (17,073)
Seat 7: tchi0754 (30,660)
Seat 8: Cm3on5th (31,910)
Seat 9: ThisIsLifeDK (14,732)
ptarso antes 100
Rich taste1 antes 100
risk2Dupside antes 100
De_Ange antes 100
tchi0754 antes 100
Cm3on5th antes 100
ThisIsLifeDK antes 100
risk2Dupside posts the small blind of 400
De_Ange posts the big blind of 800
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to risk2Dupside [4c 5c]
tchi0754 folds
Cm3on5th raises to 3,500
ThisIsLifeDK folds
ptarso folds
Rich taste1 folds
risk2Dupside.......

[grunter]

FTP 30r about ten off the money. Villain is my backer, we know each other's games well and he is running at 34/29 on the table and probably opening at least 25% of hands here. He probably has 15-20 tables and has almost certainly misclicked it to 4.5x since we don't have any dynamic going atm.

Seeing as people are always complaining about not learning enough in this forum/not seeing unique spots I thought I'd post it and maybe some of the guys still getting their heads around cEV might wanna have a crack and see if it's a profitable reshove or not.

Assume he realises I'm jamming lighter and is calling off any pair, A7s+/A9o+/KT+ (alternatively, put forth a case as to how light he should call). For the sake of simplicity assume BB always folds to the action.

Full Tilt Poker Game #30578385923: $10,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) (237292535), Table 14 - 400/800 Ante 100 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:19:19 AEST - 2011/05/19 [00:19:19 ET - 2011/05/19]
Seat 1: ptarso (80,486)
Seat 2: Rich taste1 (37,190)
Seat 3: risk2Dupside (18,972)
Seat 4: De_Ange (17,073)
Seat 7: tchi0754 (30,660)
Seat 8: Cm3on5th (31,910)
Seat 9: ThisIsLifeDK (14,732)
ptarso antes 100
Rich taste1 antes 100
risk2Dupside antes 100
De_Ange antes 100
tchi0754 antes 100
Cm3on5th antes 100
ThisIsLifeDK antes 100
risk2Dupside posts the small blind of 400
De_Ange posts the big blind of 800
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to risk2Dupside [4c 5c]
tchi0754 folds
Cm3on5th raises to 3,500
ThisIsLifeDK folds
ptarso folds
Rich taste1 folds
risk2Dupside.......

looks like he has pressed the 'bet pot' button. Maybe he did it on purpose to fck with your head. Some midstakes guys do that shit with AK/AQ and some pairs (I would assume this is not usually the case with Baza, but I think this raise size should not always be considered a misclick, could just be some lazy kent mashing pot button).

fwiw, I think its closeish but I still fold given the relative ease in which we can pick up chips in less marginal spots.

[TurnRiva]

just skender it 2 the money like you always do

[hip]

Here's my attempt @ just figuring out villans opening range.

Based on your estimate he is opening at least 25% of hands, therefore:

A7+,K9+,JT+,66+
OR if you put that into pokerstove it comes out as just 66+

Is this correct?

[hip]

can someone confirm what "opening 25% hands" means and how you would enter it into poker stove.

[InTheWhiskaz]

hit Player 1, select preflop tab and type 25 into box near bottom right hit apply and OK.

The player one range will know be populated with...

66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo

according to thread on 2plus2 that range is ordered by how hand does against three randoms

Poker Stove Hand Rankings - Poker Theory - General Poker Theory Forum

[hip]

hit Player 1, select preflop tab and type 25 into box near bottom right hit apply and OK.

The player one range will know be populated with...

66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo

according to thread on 2plus2 that range is ordered by how hand does against three randoms

Poker Stove Hand Rankings - Poker Theory - General Poker Theory Forum

thanks man.

[hip]

Here goes:

Scenario 1
Cm3on5th raises to 3,500
risk2Dupside shoves 18,972
Cm3on5th folds which is going to happen 40% of the time*
risk2Dupside wins 3500 + 1900 (blinds+antes) * 40% = 2160 chips
Cm3on5th loses 3500

Scanario 2
Cm3on5th raises to 3,500
risk2Dupside shoves 18,972
Cm3on5th calls 18,972 which is going to happen 60% of the time.
Pot-37944 chips

***Holecards***
risk2Dupside [4c,5c] which has 35.53% equity against
Cm3on5th [A7s/A9o+/KT+] which has 64.47%
risk2Dupside wins Pot * 35.53% = 13481.5 chips
Cm3on5th wins POt * 64.47% * 24462.5 chips

So in all scenarios
risk2Dupside wins 15,641.5 chips
cm3on5th wins 20,962.5 chips




*Not sure about this part. The working out is:
he opens top 25% and calls a shove with top 15% which basically means he calls 3/5 and folds 2/5 times.

[risk2Dupside]

Here goes:

Scenario 1
Cm3on5th raises to 3,500
risk2Dupside shoves 18,972
Cm3on5th folds which is going to happen 40% of the time*
risk2Dupside wins 3500 + 1900 (blinds+antes) * 40% = 2160 chips
Cm3on5th loses 3500

Scanario 2
Cm3on5th raises to 3,500
risk2Dupside shoves 18,972
Cm3on5th calls 18,972 which is going to happen 60% of the time.
Pot-37944 chips

***Holecards***
risk2Dupside [4c,5c] which has 35.53% equity against
Cm3on5th [A7s/A9o+/KT+] which has 64.47%
risk2Dupside wins Pot * 35.53% = 13481.5 chips
Cm3on5th wins POt * 64.47% * 24462.5 chips

So in all scenarios
risk2Dupside wins 15,641.5 chips
cm3on5th wins 20,962.5 chips




*Not sure about this part. The working out is:
he opens top 25% and calls a shove with top 15% which basically means he calls 3/5 and folds 2/5 times.

Yeah so using those assumptions he calls 60% of time and folds 40%.

When he folds 40% of the time I win 2160 chips on a weighted basis, correct.

When he calls 60% of the time I'm 36% to win 20872 (18972+1900) and 64% to lose 18972, which on a weighted basis is -2777 [(0.6*0.36*20872)-(0.6*0.64*18972)].

So overall when we jam 19k with this hand we lose about 600 chips, so it's a slightly losing jam - if he's opening wider than 25% which he will often be then it's slightly profitable.

The idea behind this thread (when I started it ages ago), was to get some of the newer guys to think about combining stuff like HUD stats for people's opening range, how often they'll fold to a jam and what our equity is when they don't, to construct profitable reshoving ranges...like it should be intuitively apparent that if you can jam something like 54s and almost show a profit doing it, then there are many hands that you should be reshoving over loose openers but possibly aren't.

The reason this is relevant is not reshoving enough is probably the main leak of guys I've coached from this forum, and if you're complaining a ton in the vent thread about how bad you run always losing your 15bb flip in the lategame, you're probably neglecting to realise that if you're reshoving correctly it's quite likely you won't have to be flipping for 15bb in the lategame anyway (cause you'll have more chips).

Anyway food for thought, got trolled fairly hard for doing this offline so hopefully it's useful to someone.

[risk2Dupside]

can someone confirm what "opening 25% hands" means and how you would enter it into poker stove.

Yeah for simplicity you just slide the bar to "25%" in the Preflop tab and that uses the top 25% of hands (by equity against a random hand). You can obviously get more specific and add a few extra hands in (eg. if he's opening A4o he's probably opening A2o etc), but the idea is just to get a general feel for what you might be up against.