Micro cash (confused hero)

[berry1]

some thoughts:

- he seems pretty aggro pre, btn vs SB, so i am going to assume he gets in JJ+, AK pre the majority of the time without any history (stats on hero?)

- 14/11 is pretty close together, so extrapolating there should be few 3bet flatting hands in his range. maybe like 66-TT, suited broadways, AJ-AQ, A7-ATs, maybe 87s-JTs?

- he cant have any hands with Kd or Jd or 9d, which takes out a few preflop / flop combos

- he is mostly raising the flop with sets (and J9 if in his range) on a pretty wet board

- dont really agree that he is checking back hands with showdown value like 88/TT on the turn. bad regs and/or low-level thinking players are probably just thinking "he checked a scare card, i bet" irrelevant of holding, esp if they have a diamond

- we have Kd so have re-draw against low flushes and imo he is unlikely to have a boat, so mainly only worried about AdXd

still think its close to at least c/c on turn, but hey, like i said, i am a station.

the 40% of pot bet sucks... any chance you think you can get him to fold a flush?

- So assuming he cant have JJ+AK (possibly 4-bets wider, hero was 3-betting approx 10% on this table, which is higher than usual). His aggression factor is low but sample size and most villains at this stake cant have 99 or J9 or 33 if its in his range (personally id likely flat these hands some % of the time, if they were in my range here, but most villains dont)

- This leaves maybe 66-88, TT, AJ-AQ, suited aces and suited broadways and maybe some lower sc. he'd likely raise a hand like KQdd or QTdd on the flop i think alltho once again aggr factor.

- Looking thru the brief hand history i have on him he seemed to bet a lot when checked to,esp in 3-bet pots

- I think against most villains this is likely a c/f, move onto a better spot etc etc, but i dunno this spot is looking pretty close. being oop is fucking gay haha

[higher wattage]

bet turn for value, tons worse will peel here

[kabonm1]

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