Micro cash (confused hero)

[berry1]

I felt so lost in this hand wasnt sure what the fuck i was meant to do when the turn peeled off. half of ptr's database seems to be down but his stats appear to be bad, but from what i can gather he seems somewhat standard for this stake.

He's running fairly tight pre 14/11 with aggr freq 1.3

Assume he's flatting the flop with pretty much his whole range and while the turn looks unideal i dont think it hits him a hell of a lot im just unsure of what my thought process should be in terms of my plan for the rest of the hand.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($52.50)
BB ($51.85)
UTG ($67.30)
UTG+1 ($50)
CO ($64)
BTN ($92)

Dealt to Hero K:club: K:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, fold, BTN calls $3.50

FLOP ($10.50) 9:diamond: 3:diamond: J:heart:

Hero bets $6.60, BTN calls $6.60

TURN ($23.70) 9:diamond: 3:diamond: J:heart: J:diamond:

Hero ??????,

[zipping]

Lol turn cards. Bet turn if he has high fold to turn cbet stats, your prolly toast if he calls and chk fold to a non diamond rvr, aggression stats means he is unlikely to raise. If he likes to float chk call chk call depending on wtsd stats and w$sd stats.

[risk2Dupside]

c/f

[berry1]

doesnt change much given sample size but should have added that his fold to c-bet was (0/4), which was kinda why i was expecting him to float widish but making assumptions over a 150 hand sample is obvs pretty bad

[djkelly69]

i am leaning towards c/c, c/decide, prob call cos i am a station.

any F23B stats?

[risk2Dupside]

if ur 14/11 sample size is any good then his fold to 3bet stat isn't that relevant since he should always have a fairly strong range heading to the flop.

assuming he gets QQ+/AK in pre, and that he's likely to check shit like 88/TT back on the turn rather than turn it into a bluff, then you're fairly fucked by his turn betting range when checked to.

[berry1]

i am leaning towards c/c, c/decide, prob call cos i am a station.

any F23B stats?

thats eventually what i decided to do cause i'm a station at heart but obvs risks reasoning makes a lot more sense than mine "oooh kings letss go showdown"

ummm he hadnt folded to 1 previous 3-bet so mine made (0/2)

I was leaning towards c/f but then he only bet about 40% pot on turn and river and kinda figured that maybe i could be good enough of the time.

[zipping]

If he is 0/4 fold to cbet Id bump my cbet a bit higher on the flop esp if you are expecting him to peel. He may read your cbet as weak which means he calls a little wider which makes me a little more inclined not to fold.

Prolly not enough info to do anything other than c/f becuase 50nl has few bluffs in it but i would be watching like a hawk how he played his bttns from then on.

[djkelly69]

some thoughts:

- he seems pretty aggro pre, btn vs SB, so i am going to assume he gets in JJ+, AK pre the majority of the time without any history (stats on hero?)

- 14/11 is pretty close together, so extrapolating there should be few 3bet flatting hands in his range. maybe like 66-TT, suited broadways, AJ-AQ, A7-ATs, maybe 87s-JTs?

- he cant have any hands with Kd or Jd or 9d, which takes out a few preflop / flop combos

- he is mostly raising the flop with sets (and J9 if in his range) on a pretty wet board

- dont really agree that he is checking back hands with showdown value like 88/TT on the turn. bad regs and/or low-level thinking players are probably just thinking "he checked a scare card, i bet" irrelevant of holding, esp if they have a diamond

- we have Kd so have re-draw against low flushes and imo he is unlikely to have a boat, so mainly only worried about AdXd

still think its close to at least c/c on turn, but hey, like i said, i am a station.

the 40% of pot bet sucks... any chance you think you can get him to fold a flush?

[risk2Dupside]

- dont really agree that he is checking back hands with showdown value like 88/TT on the turn. bad regs and/or low-level thinking players are probably just thinking "he checked a scare card, i bet" irrelevant of holding, esp if they have a diamond

still think its close to at least c/c on turn, but hey, like i said, i am a station.

your first point is definitely valid, b/f much better than c/c though