QQ on meh board facing over shove on river

[knightfan]

played this hand today and im still not sure what to think really.

if i was to call this river is it really that bad??

villain has been over playing medium pairs and weak top pairs alot, and has gone from 3k down to 1k and back.

whats kinda range would he be cold calling a 3bet OOP with that i beat, but also what range actually beats me?, i mean AK would more than likely 4bet and AJ would more than like fold, i have 2 blockers to AQ and 2 As on the board cut those combo's down.

basically am i good enough % of the time to call here profitably ?

P.S checking this flop back 3 handed is ok yeah?? ( i know its kinda meh aswell but not terrible?)


*edit his stats are

18/13/3.6

***** Hand History for Game 65401505317 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, August 01, 08:36:57 ET 2011
Table 432010931 1 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Seat 1: BD58 ( $3545.00 USD )
Seat 2: chinky_jay ( $2835.00 USD )
Seat 3: Poker Own U ( $2045.00 USD )
Seat 4: deviass ( $3905.00 USD )
Seat 5: Chum 0FF ( $2950.00 USD )
Seat 6: Pokertoker84 ( $1175.00 USD )
Seat 7: L8BLMR ( $2960.00 USD )
Seat 8: affinity_00 ( $4325.00 USD )
Seat 9: Seanallin99 ( $2905.00 USD )
BD58 posts small blind [$25.00 USD].
chinky_jay posts big blind [$50.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to affinity_00 [ Qh Qs ]
Poker Own U folds
deviass folds
Chum 0FF folds
Pokertoker84 folds
L8BLMR raises [$100.00 USD]
affinity_00 raises [$350.00 USD]
Seanallin99 folds
BD58 calls [$325.00 USD]
chinky_jay folds
L8BLMR calls [$250.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ As, 9c, 2s ]
BD58 checks
L8BLMR checks
affinity_00 checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ad ]
BD58 bets [$350.00 USD]
L8BLMR folds
affinity_00 calls [$350.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 9d ]
BD58 bets [$2845.00 USD]
affinity_00 ????


sorry for all of the Q's in OP but i just started typing and thats what came out.

cheers

[risk2Dupside]

some thoughts

consider flatting pre with no history - your equity against a typical felting range pre-antes 60bb (?) deep is <50%, your hand plays great in position and there is merit to being underrepped

as played 3b smaller - you want him to go to the flop OOP with as wide a range as possible and making it 3.5x is likely to narrow his range considerably (and in this hand, makes it more likely you are beat)..something like 2.3-2.8x is fine

fold river - the overcaller almost always has a strong hand pre, overbet shoves are usually the nuts, it's early and there are better spots for your money

[Strong Play]

could make a movie out of that analysis.

[risk2Dupside]

nice to see you putting up your hand for the role of second codpiece...

[berry1]

Any chance of getting a more detailed pros vs cons of 3-betting here 60bb deep?


And sorry to hijack the thread but also the pros and cons of 3-betting ~30bb stack oop in this spot, 7 handed where avge stack is 67bb. i've been playing pretty tight and are yet to get out of line. Villain knows my utg opening range is narrow. He also knows he has a huge edge over me in general. villain is a good aussie pro (who is obvs aware of his table image, he's been 3-betting like ~2.5%). hand from $425 sat to appt

Hold'Em Poker Software - Tracking and Analysis Poker Software
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer Game#65366408529

villain ($6,797)
axe38 ($11,530)
leedsfc08 ($17,223)
Darth Nolton ($12,390)
untam3 ($6,496)
Rined ($13,260)
skidsteer13 ($13,374)
raysit ($13,930)
villain posts (SB) $100
axe38 posts (BB) $200

Dealt to leedsfc08 Ts Td
leedsfc08 raises to $400
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
villain calls $300
axe38 calls $200
FLOP ($1,200) 9c Tc 2s
villain checks
axe38 checks
leedsfc08 bets $522
villain raises to $1,555
axe38 folds
leedsfc08 raises to $16,823 (AI)
villain calls $4,842 (AI)
TURN ($13,994) 9c Tc 2s As
RIVER ($13,994) 9c Tc 2s As 6c
villain shows Qh Qc
(Pre 80%, Flop 15.3%, Turn 4.5%)

leedsfc08 shows Ts Td
(Pre 20%, Flop 84.7%, Turn 95.5%)

leedsfc08 wins $13,994

[risk2Dupside]

Any chance of getting a more detailed pros vs cons of 3-betting here 60bb deep?

I can elaborate but I assume you want other opinions?

And sorry to hijack the thread but also the pros and cons of 3-betting ~30bb stack oop in this spot

In the spot described if villain is aware of his image I would 3b as the SB almost every time. It's going to be harder to extract maximum value flatting OOP, you will go broke with worse hands preflop and/or possibly flat dominated hands like TT/JJ/AQ, all of which is good for him and bad for you.

If villain has a huge edge on the table, thinks you are a nit or that you understand how strong his line is, or thinks that you will just dump stuff like TT/JJ pre if he 3bets then checkraising decent flops is going to have you putting your money in a lot worse than you would preflop. He runs the chance of being outflopped but whatever, he still has 30bb.

[headnick]

In response to Knightfan's thread..

I do not play these stakes so take my opinion with a grain of salt...

Firstly, has he shown a tendency to flat pre after being reraised, and is he Euro? This information is crucial if we are to dissect his likely holding, however in a general sense and acting on his HUD stats here is my two bobs worth...

If villain has AK he would 4-bet pre at least 70% of the time as it is very weak from his end to flat OOP pre. So you would probably rule that out.

You are right about him almost never having AQ as you have 2x Q's in your hand.

The only other likely option really is A/J-10 or some kind of pair.

I like your check behind for pot control, and your flat call on the turn is pretty much standard.

His river bet? This is a typical new age "Isildur Shove" wheras he either has it 50% of the time or doesn't have it 50% of the time, either way you cannot call as you do not have sufficient odds.

Fold and move on...

[berry1]

I can elaborate but I assume you want other opinions?



In the spot described if villain is aware of his image I would 3b as the SB almost every time. It's going to be harder to extract maximum value flatting OOP, you will go broke with worse hands preflop and/or possibly flat dominated hands like TT/JJ/AQ, all of which is good for him and bad for you.

If villain has a huge edge on the table, thinks you are a nit or that you understand how strong his line is, or thinks that you will just dump stuff like TT/JJ pre if he 3bets then checkraising decent flops is going to have you putting your money in a lot worse than you would preflop. He runs the chance of being outflopped but whatever, he still has 30bb.

thanks. other opinions would have been good but no-one has posted so would be appreciated if you could please elaborate