calling shove late in a turboment

[berry1]

posted this hand in my calling ranges thread in the beginners section a while ago but only got one real response. the rest was just spam by whywait.

Hold'em Manager Poker Software - Best Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem $50,000(BB) Replayer Game#65344676461

12 oz m0use ($271,903)
leedsfc08 ($459,374)
elburg666 ($382,708)
leonadro ($376,186)
LGWCHAMP ($248,463)
PAO_IDUL17 ($411,127)
mikeyeomans ($599,611)
Maxexxl ($684,125)
gewinner47 ($241,052)

Maxexxl antes $5,000
gewinner47 antes $5,000
12 oz m0use antes $5,000
leedsfc08 antes $5,000
elburg666 antes $5,000
leonadro antes $5,000
LGWCHAMP antes $5,000
PAO_IDUL17 antes $5,000
mikeyeomans antes $5,000
12 oz m0use posts (SB) $25,000
leedsfc08 posts (BB) $50,000

Dealt to leedsfc08 Jd 7c
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
fold, fold,
12 oz m0use raises to $266,903 (AI)
leedsfc08 calls $216,903
FLOP ($578,806) Qd Ac 4d
TURN ($578,806) Qd Ac 4d Ks
RIVER ($578,806) Qd Ac 4d Ks 8s
12 oz m0use shows Ah 9s
(Pre 62%, Flop 92.5%, Turn 90.9%)

leedsfc08 shows Jd 7c
(Pre 38%, Flop 7.5%, Turn 9.1%)

12 oz m0use wins $578,806


like 35 players left. think i had avge stack. guaranteed about $70. 3.4k for 1st



Villain is a winning player. Was assuming he would shove atc in which case we have 49.6% equity

If we fold -55k
If we call (.49682x578806)-271903 = +15.66k



If he's only shoving 70% we have 43.13% equity
if we fold -55k
If we call (.43138*578806)-271903= -22.2k

which still works out better than folding.


And if he's shoving 46% we have 37.496% equity
If we fold -55k
If we call (.37496*578806) - 271903 = -54.8k
which is more or less the break even point


Like I said i assumed this villain would be shoving atc just thought i'd put up the calculations for if he wasnt shoving atc


Problem with this spot is if we lose our stack no longer has any fold equity so we miss out on future +ev spots.


comments/thoughts anyone

[hip]

im liking the call
at first i thought fold, but after reading ur rationale i agree calling is better.

[STiG]

I'd fold & look to jam the next 2-3 hands into the smaller stacks on your table.

[assorted]

Sorry, I'm no great player, but going all-in with J-7os was just stupid. And TJ Cloutier states all the way through his book that I'm reading that three hole straight draws like that are some of the worst hands to play in tournaments. He doesn't even support playing K-9.

[risk2Dupside]

I'd fold & look to jam the next 2-3 hands into the smaller stacks on your table.

+1

imo the question isn't about whether your call is +cEV, though at least doing the math on it is a good thing to do. It's about acknowledging that it's "close" and then deciding that since you're passing through the blinds now and will have tons of shove spots from late position with a stack that has fold equity if you fold here, that's probably better than losing in a close spot where you have no fold equity (ie he is already all-in) and then being stuck with a stack that people will probably call off with any two when you jam. And on that note if you're getting something like more than 2:1 because he's simply that short then calling starts looking a lot better.

Sorry, I'm no great player, but ...... was just stupid.

If you're not good you don't really have the right to say something is 'stupid', and when you are good the times you'll decide it's worth saying are pretty rare. Since he posted decent math and you're spouting nonsense from a book about the game that was defunct decades ago I daresay this isn't one of those times.

[TrappedUnderIce]

if only the rest of the hands posted were like this!

thanks for posting and again <3 Risk

[hip]

I'd fold & look to jam the next 2-3 hands into the smaller stacks on your table.

i like this answer better than mine now

[berry1]

thanks guys

[smokinsam69]

I'm late to this party but, and I like your reasoning, however I'm another +1 here, I still feel that with Maths aside, during these later phases of a tournament you want to be using your stack to be putting maximum pressure on players, with your shoves. This alone out weighs the small equity you would gain in the long term from calling here.

The math is pretty interesting but, I still feel J-7 is too weak to call. If I'm villain its a def shove with any 2 there. And with these cards its a case of bow down to your master and fold.

[assorted]

+1
If you're not good you don't really have the right to say something is 'stupid', and when you are good the times you'll decide it's worth saying are pretty rare. Since he posted decent math and you're spouting nonsense from a book about the game that was defunct decades ago I daresay this isn't one of those times.

Look, what you say is fair enough. I realise I'm out of my depth in this discussion to a degree and I'm here to learn so I accept what you say. I was also interested to learn that the TJ's book was out of date. But...

"Problem with this spot is if we lose our stack no longer has any fold equity so we miss out on future +ev spots."

Basically you're risking your table strength and the ability to fold a few more hands with this play. All the math aside, it just makes no sense to call that all in bet with a hand like J-7os. Especially when you know that you're nearing the endgame of the tournament and calling with a marginal hand would leave you with a shortish stack and an uphill battle when you lose.