counterfeit boat in holdem

[hip]

river's a fold, right?

PokerStars Game #67191509733: Tournament #438425830, $13.89+$1.11 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2011/09/08 19:53:37 AEST [2011/09/08 5:53:37 ET]
Table '438425830 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Zloch (1440 in chips)
Seat 2: Ckestor (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: y2kstar (1560 in chips)
Seat 4: addsy888 (1460 in chips)
Seat 5: wigootje (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: Griff_nick (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: hipnotic_au (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: adomigan (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: OzDazzler (1550 in chips)
addsy888: posts small blind 10
wigootje: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hipnotic_au [8h 8s]
Griff_nick: folds
hipnotic_au: raises 40 to 60
adomigan: folds
OzDazzler: calls 60
Zloch: folds
Ckestor: folds
y2kstar: folds
addsy888: folds
wigootje: folds
*** FLOP *** [4h 4c Kh]
hipnotic_au: bets 80
OzDazzler: calls 80
*** TURN *** [4h 4c Kh] [8c]
hipnotic_au: bets 100
OzDazzler: raises 120 to 220
hipnotic_au: raises 220 to 440
OzDazzler: calls 220
*** RIVER *** [4h 4c Kh 8c] [Kd]
hipnotic_au: checks
OzDazzler: bets 970 and is all-in
hipnotic_au: folds
Uncalled bet (970) returned to OzDazzler
OzDazzler collected 1190 from pot
OzDazzler: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1190 | Rake 0
Board [4h 4c Kh 8c Kd]
Seat 1: Zloch folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Ckestor folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: y2kstar (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: addsy888 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: wigootje (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Griff_nick folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: hipnotic_au folded on the River
Seat 8: adomigan folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: OzDazzler collected (1190)

[moffo47]

yes.

[hip]

thx

[moffo47]

make it 680 on turn tho

[Strong Play]

lead turn for 140

[thret]

I realise you aren't very deep wrt pot, but any thoughts on mini-bet folding river? That's likely the line I would take.

[hip]

@Thretif he's plan's to bluff @ it, i dont think min bet's gonna stop him.

i guess it would only stop someone who had no plan @ the river...and because it's checked to him decides to bluff a broken flush draw.

@SPThanks for the bet sizing too...i took another look at the pot sizes. I purposely underbet the turn because I'm trying to seem weak. I guess the reason to lead 1/2 pot is to keep it consistent with bluffs?

@MoffoAnd agree with turn raise - that way its easier to get stacks in. He wont be able to fold a bunch of to a turn raise of 680.

[berry1]

I realise you aren't very deep wrt pot, but any thoughts on mini-bet folding river? That's likely the line I would take.

do you take that line with a king ever?
would you ever take this line against someone slightly competent or better?
at what stakes would you do this?

[berry1]

unless someone knows that you have a balanced mini-betting range is it not super exploitable if the villain can breathe?

[thret]

This is a turbo sng, the line I actually take is to ship on the turn. 3rd nuts does 'pretty well' vs his reraising range and as it's very early on I fully expect him to call with flush draws and Kx or even QQ type hands. People do funny things in the first orbit of turbo sngs.

Deeper stacked in an MTT or cash game if we make it to the river I see myself small bet folding, and small betting kings for value. I have a lot of respect for people who can bluff raise on the river CORRECTLY in spots like this because although it's easy to see in a post-mortem analysis few people will do it profitably. I seem to find people bluff raising rivers in situations with zero fold equity and meekly calling or folding in polarised spots like this.

This hand would be fun in live PLO btw.