How much of Tournament poker is skill?

[Monkey]

optimaline - The problem with the Hendon Mob etc is they do not track the result where the players finish outside of the money. Last year Tom Dwan, arguably one of the best cash game players of all time, entered 56 of the 58 bracelet events at a huge cost to himself but he is still shown as "winning" around $230k when he almost certainly lost money.

I have a lot of respect for many of the older guys but when you see how some of them play without the TV editing the standard hands out then you would be surprised at how bad some of them hand. At least it keeps the dream alive for us mere mortals!

Everybody knows this, but it doesnt make them bad players.

JK you tend to hate on guys such as Ivey and co because they were able to play with Full Tilt money and that somehow effect the results. Whats your take now the Full Tilt money is gone and Ivey is having seemingly one of the best years of his life on the circuit?

[clarence]

It is 100% SKILL. Unless you have the skill to optimise opportunity you can't handle the lucky breaks when they come.
Luck is only useful (in the long run) to those who know how to handle it. The short term river hit against the odds is not sustainable.

[Linda B]

The WSOP is on right now and it is also time for my perenial question.
"How many of you out there still think that Tournament poker is mainly skill?"

"Phil Ivey is stealing the headlines by making a fifth final table at this WSOP alone."

Read more: Live Reporting | 2012 World Series of Poker | Event 35: $2,500 Mixed Hold'em | PokerNews

Ivey seems to think so.

[JK.]

Hi optimaline,
I played against these guys several times on my brief visits to Las Vegas and Los Angeles back in the 80's.
I also ran tournaments in Adelaide when we invited Eric Seidel,Johny Chan,Doyle Brunson and others.
So I am fairly well informed of their ability.
This is my conclusion.Especially Eric and Phill.They are like children who have only one toy but they never get tired of it.
The only thing for the last 30 years they have done is to play tournaments.I can't believe it.
Anyhow,if you play at least three or more tournaments every day for 30 years,how many tournaments would you expect to win?
If you play two bracelet tournaments a day and enter every tournament at every WSOP event,how many tournaments would you expect to win.
Mathematical probability expects somone to win more than others.
So Phil may have 12 bracelets.This is nothing considering how many events he has played in.
If he was a champion and there was little luck in poker and a lot of skill,he would have won a lot more tournaments considering how many events he plays in.
They are like our Greek Arthur.Part of the local poker room furniture.
Sad that they don't have the personality and drive to try something besides poker.

[boreemax]

Whilst reading ESPN's poker page and reading up on WSOP news it seems that quite a big deal is made of multiple bracelet winners, and bracelet winners on final tables, and whilst I concur with the greatness of such a feat, it is only inevitable that this will happen more and more frequently.
Every year there are up to approx 100 possible bracelet winners (WSOP about 60 WSOP Europe about 20 and now WSOP Asia Pacific about 10), so that every year up to 100 or so players are added to the pool of possible multiple bracelet winners, and there are 100 or so people who can now qualify as bracelet winners that make future final tables, so I guess it would only be a matter of time before it would be more common to have previous bracelet winners on final tables than not (not sure how to work it out but maybe in 50/60 years time this would be the case).
Any thoughts on this, I guess what I'm getting at is that the greatness of the feat is reduced with every passing year as more ppl become eligible.
Incidentally how would a person who wins multiple WSOP ME (e'g Vegas/Europe/Asia-pacific) rate in terms of best poker achievements? Is it likely that you can be "LUCKY" twice at WSOP ME's. I know Chan has won 2 but they were in the old days of small fields, but what about currently ?

[JK.]

The reason I don't like Ivey is that he is a cheat,liar and a thief.
For years he played with stolen money given to him by Full Tilt.
He knew it was stolen and laughed.
He lied to his friends when he won money on golf.
He has all the habits of a degenerate gambler.

Boreemax,you have a good point.It won't be long before it will be common
to have all bracelet winners on a final table.

It just shows how much luck is involved when you see how many people win bracelets.

[optimaline]

Hi John,
I always enjoy reading your posts; you have many interesting stories you include with your arguments that only someone who's been there and seen it all over a long time could provide.
I agree with your point about players who enter a lot of tournaments are bound to have wins and FT's more than others. That's basic probability and useful for the short-term variance where luck indeed is a factor. Successful online grinders would not be very profitable if they only played 1 tournament a day. However, the guys who play mainly live don't have the ability to multi-table so their results take longer to converge. Making it more impressive when they are consistently beating large fields to make multiple final tables/titles.
Degeneracies/thieving opinions aside, I'm interested on your thoughts regarding Ivey's tournament skill versus luck when it seems almost standard to see him make final tables in today's very large fields. This year's WSOP is a shining example.

[JK.]

Hi Optimaline,
When you or I play in a $10,000 entry tournament,it effects our play.It could be our life savings.It could be borrowed money.
It could be our last money so it most certainly dictates how we play.
On the other hand,Ivey played with stolen money(Full Tilt)for many years.
It is well known that people who play with "black"money play different to people who are under financial pressure.
So I am told Ivey has made five final tables out of 35 tournaments.
This is nothing.How many did he actually win?
Do you remember a few years ago when Jeff Lissandro won three bracelets ,all in Seven Card Stud tournments.
Does this make him world's greatest player?Does this rate better than five final tables by Ivey?
By the way,five tables has a long way to go to compare with the "22"final tables achieved by an unknown Russian player at the WSOP.
People love to make heros and stars from ordinary people.
Comparing Ivey's five tables with my Russian friend is like the crap promotion of the race horse Black Caviar.
I was in Australia last month and all I heard was Black Caviar breaks the world record and is the greatest horse of all time.
What a lot of crap.
If you do some research you would find that the world record for an undefeated run of races is 56.Yes 56.So the promoters of Black Caviar have a long way to go.
I am just interested in truth ,honesty and reality.
Ivey is a crook and should not be worshiped by the young ,new players.

[boreemax]

This has just been put up by Gary Wise at ESPN poker about Ivey's run good and the odds of it happening, it's exactly what this thread needs a few numbers and things to think about and comparisons with other poker achievements, any thoughts

t.co/Eb47o7pd

[JK.]

Thanks for the information boreemax and optimaline,I stand corrected.Nikolai only made 10 cashes in one series.
But why don't the Americans make a big deal of this achievement?
By the way the list of the most final tables contains who is who of people who were backed by the Full Tilt's solen money.
They should be ashamed and suspended from all tournaments for a lengthy period.
But the Americans glorify their crooks as long as they are winners.
I hate their ignoring the cheating and constantly placing these cheats on a pedestal'
About 20 years ago I was invited to a Puggy Pearson Roast.Before he died.
The roast was to congratulate Puggy on his poker achievements.Some of the top players of the time were invited to speak and talk about Puggy and his glorious achievements.
Speaker after speaker talked and laughed about how Amarillo Slim ,Doyle Brunson and Puggy worked their way around Texas and California cheating as a team and cleaning up the ignorant.
I was shocked when the audience time after time roared with laughter and burst into applause.
To the Americans their own can do no wrong as long as they win.

Several years ago more than 2,000,000 in extra chips were found on the final table.
Despite the denials by Rios we all knew that exactly 200 local pros were put in the tournament for free.
Many of the all time greatest winners were on that list.
American poker is corrupt and it stinks.
Ivey is on the top of that "Stink"list.Also on that list are Ferguson,Lederer and many others.
Who wants to worship lowlife?