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The Official Melbourne Cup Thread - Straight From The Horse's Mouth
I think Makybe Diva will make history tomorrow and win her third Melbourne Cup. I don't think she is spectacular value, but I'll point out that I don't think she was last year either, she was against history then, she is against history now. I think she is going better than she is last year, the ONLY thing in the negative is that she is carrying a lot of weight, probably 1.5kg more than ideal. She is certainly enough of a champion to overcome this impost.I have discredited a number of horses from the race. I personally think the race prior to the Melbourne Cup needs to be a place in order for you to have a chance at winning, or at least a charmed run. So, I am not putting a cent on any of these horses, win, place, or any exotic:*Distinction*Greys Inn*Franklins Gardens*Xcellent*Demerger*Portland Singa*Vouvray*Envoy*Rizon*KamskyI believe the rest of the field all have the potential to run a good race provided conditions suit. The best value are horses that are less than $17, but probably better value are horses that are a bit more than that, but for a place. I'll go through the six that I like, and will be boxing for exotics.1) Makybe Diva. Obvious reasons. If you leave her out of any equation, I believe you don't respect what she has achieved in her previous Cups, and especially her form this preparation. Out and out champion with only one thing against her, and it can be overcome.7) Railings. This horse is SO underrated. I have only backed it once, when it won the Metropolitan at Randwick, but I still underrated it. It had been noted before the Caulfield Cup that not many have won the Metrop-Caulfield double, and similarly with the Metrop-Melbourne. I'm pretty sure if he wins he'll be the first to complete the treble. I stuck my nose up in the air when people told me he would win the Caulfield. That win was spectacular, and I think it is the main reason why I discredit Eye Popper's chances in the Cup. Railings hit the line far better than Eye Popper, and every run he increases his ratings and seems to be hitting the line harder. My real danger.12) Dizelle. You can write her off all you want, but I think she has something up her sleeve. I for one have been bitterly disappointed at her runs this time in, and I tipped her for the Caulfield Cup where she had no luck and probably wouldn'tve come close if she did. I didn't mind her run on Saturday though, and at $9.25 a place, looks very tasty.13) Lachlan River. Did just as poorly in the Caulfield as Dizelle but ran home well behind Lad Of The Manor in the Mackinnon on Saturday and could find something more.22) Leica Falcon. Gives 8kg to the Diva but also is 6 barriers wider. It's bloody hard to get a good spot from out there, and I think this will be his only problem tomorrow. Equally impressive as both Railings and Eye Popper in the Caulfield Cup, if not more so. Good jockey on board who has won the Cup previously. Likes sting out of the ground and if the track is a wet but not mud, will be rocketing home behind Makybe. My worry is it's lack of real experience.23) Mr Celebrity. Has absolutely no weight on it's back with only 49kg. Is 9kg less than what it would be carrying if this were a WFA event. Missed the start horribly in the Geelong cup and still produced a blinding effort after being last the whole way, then was declared a non runner. Decent effort on the weekend and has room to improve.Good luck to all.
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U better get up and run Maurie!!!Tam
