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Thread: Are these % correct?

  1. #1
    Khnum is offline PNW Lurker
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    Default Are these % correct?

    You hold Ah AsVillian: 6d KhFlop: 8c 6s KcOnly way AA can win if a 8 comes or if the other 2 remaining aces come. Now my calculations are as follows.If we use the % law, there would be 5outs that could help us, and because there are 2 cards to come that would be: 5 x 4 -1, which = 19% (lets just say 20 to make it even)If were looking at odds, there's 52 cards in the deck, 4 of which we've seen and 3 on the flop, so 45 remaining cards, which 5 could help us. 40 - 5 or 8 to 1Now are my calculations correct? Because twodimes.net says that the A A has a 25% chance and the K 6 75% chance, but im getting 20/80. Also my odds are correct yes?
    http://www.pokernetwork.com/Nnoticeboard_reply.cfm?Summary_ID=11802

  2. #2
    PeepOnTheSly's Avatar
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    Default Are these % correct?

    How bout any 2 of the same card, say 4 turn 4 river?

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    Default Are these % correct?

    turn 4 river 4

  4. #4
    Trent's Avatar
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    Default Are these % correct?

    You forgot backdoor outs, running repeaters you win.
    Aah! They're dogs... and they're playing poker! - Homer Simpson

  5. #5
    Khnum is offline PNW Lurker
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    Default Are these % correct?

    Ah your correct, that's why the %'s go up just a tad bit? 75/25 instead of 80/20 correct?Of course I dont want to know the exact exact answer, I'm just trying to put myself say at a live tournament so rough estimates will do. These rough estimates are close enough correct?
    http://www.pokernetwork.com/Nnoticeboard_reply.cfm?Summary_ID=11802

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    Default Are these % correct?

    yeah thats what i meant trent, me speaka not england.

  7. #7
    Khnum is offline PNW Lurker
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    Default Are these % correct?

    Ye but how do u work out running outs? cause they both must come, so how do u do the maths for that? But generally speaking these odds are roughly correct if ur in a live situation correct?
    http://www.pokernetwork.com/Nnoticeboard_reply.cfm?Summary_ID=11802

  8. #8
    Trent's Avatar
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    Default Are these % correct?

    2 outs for bd flush0.5 - 1 outs for a bd straight1 out for bd repeaters Like you said, its not an exact science.
    Aah! They're dogs... and they're playing poker! - Homer Simpson

  9. #9
    Trent's Avatar
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    Default Are these % correct?

    And just to add, don't get to wrapped around the axles about counting all your outs. Your read on your opponent is never going to be that accurate that you can put him on two pair. He may the type of opponent that would play a set like that, therefore giving you a lot less outs; or a flush draw therefore a lot more "outs"; or just plain old TPTK.Ed Miller talks about discounting outs to take this into consideration. So in your example he may easily discount the backdoor repeaters, which will balance the calculations for when the villian has a set. Therefore your initial 20/80 calcs were good. If he was a good aggressive opponent you may not discount any, since he will have TPTK or FD often enough to make up for when he has a set.
    Aah! They're dogs... and they're playing poker! - Homer Simpson

  10. #10
    Strong Play's Avatar
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    Default Are these % correct?

    To calculate running outs in this particular situation use the following methodAlthough in reality, probly best to keep in mind the comments posted by Trent which I think were spot on).You hold Ah AsVillain holds Kh 6dFlop: 8s 6c Kc1st card in a running series must be a blank, blanks left: 36 (any 2,3,4,5,7,9,T,J,Q)Prob turn is a blank: 36/45River must be the same as turn, thus 3 possible cards. Prob river repeats turn: 3/44Thus, prob of a running pair that wins it for you: 36/45 * 3/44This works out as being approximately equal to 5.45%, which you can consider on the flop to be between 1 and 1.5 outs…Cheers
    Seriously rickwaa be more of a loser.

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