NSW Election betting

[luckyshades]

Not sure how many people actually bet things like elections, but while I don't have any concrete info, I think that it's probably a highly beatable wager. Over $5m was wagered on the Federal election, so someone is betting on these things !!!

I guess it's fair to say I follow NSW politics fairly closely, but like any sporting event anything can happen.

You aren't going to get big odds betting on elections - but a winner is a winner right ??

Obviously the Liberals will win the election - that's not in doubt.

But there is some interest in individual seats.

In the seat of Balmain currently held by NSW Education Minister Verity Firth the $1.40 (I've even seen it a bit higher) on Greens candidate Jamie Parker is an absolute gift. He will be the first Greens MP in the NSW Parliament. The ALP gave up on Firth's seat after the redistricting a few years ago, and were surprised they held it at the last election.

This price will fall before March 26th.

The seat of Marrickville is a lot tougher where current Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt is facing a strong Greens challenger. Carmel is an extremely good campaigner, and local residents really like her. I think she will probably hold this for the ALP, but at $1.85 I don't think I'd touch it.

The seat of Toongabbie is an interesting one.

The ALP have been trying to dump former Premier Nathan Rees, but his community really like him. And he has done a lot of work locally, even after he was unceremoniously dumped as Premier in favour of the current moron. Unlike most people in his spot, Rees "rolled up his sleeves" (as he was repeatedly mocked for saying almost daily while Premier) and got back to his local community. And they like him for it.

I think he holds this seat, and the $1.57 is a decent price.

I also think there is a fair bit of value in the ALP underdog in the seat of Blue Mountains. The last time a Liberal MP held this seat he ended up in jail for making death threats. I know quite a bit about the seat of Blue Mountains. Previously held by former Attorney General Bob Debus (before he went to Federal Parliament for a term) then by former NSW RFS Commissioner Phil Koperberg it's a seat which has one of the highest proportion of public servants in NSW - if not the highest. It seems like every household is a teacher or a nurse. Obviously that's a big plus for the ALP.

The local ALP branches in the Blue Mountains also will help.

In Trish they have a candidate they really like and will support her. She faces a tough task because of the general mood for change, but $2.75 is big overs imo. I think this seat is a coin flip. Green preferences will be key. While they may not be instructing people to give their preferences to the ALP, I think the overwhelming majority of voters will do it anyway in this seat. And there is still time for the ALP to strike a local deal.

You can also bet on how many seats the ALP will hold after the election.

I think the oddsmakers have this right on the money with 16-20 paying $2.75 and 21-25 paying $3.50. Personally I think the ALP will retain 21 seats.

You can also bet on who the next ALP leader will be on Jan 1, 2012 with John Robertson the favourite at $1.30 and Keneally and current Police Minister Michael Daley tied at $3.50. It will probably be Robbo - former boss of NSW Unions - but Daley is very ambitious and has made no secret of the fact he wants the job. And from a strategic point of view, Robbo might let him have it. The NSW ALP are likely facing 2 terms in Opposition, so Robertson has plenty of time to take over a bit later while tucked away in his safe seat of Blacktown.

[Strong Play]

$3.50

is this an exact price or just an approximation...?

[SwoopAE]

There's great value in election betting - i'm up about 6k or so lifetime betting mostly on US politics (really cleaned up in 2008, winning 11 of my 12 bets including two where I was laid 5-1 in my favour). As I havent been following the NSW election closely due to it not being close/not living in NSW, I probably wont be betting it but there should be good value on some individual seats. For avid sportsbettors out there, weighted polling averages are hugely +EV if you can find a good analysis site (fivethirtyeight.com and electoral-vote.com are good for US politics, pollbludger.com is okay for news but nothing special for analysis for australian politics)

[luckyshades]

Looks like most of these tips are going to be right.

Looks like 21 seats will be pretty darn close, Rees and Tebbutt both won in Toongabbie and Marrickville respectively and the only other tip was for Jamie Parker (Greens) in Balmain, which is still way too close to call.

Interesting race because the preferences of the person who comes third will be key. The last numbers I saw had the Lib candidate leading (who is no chance of winning). If Parker finishes in 3rd spot then Firth will retain, if Firth finishes in 3rd spot Parker will win the seat.