Crocky's Corner: Will The Cats Cop A Licking?

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September 25 2008

Written to Feature Articles by Crocky

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"Billy "The Croc" Argyros previews the 2008 AFL Grand Final"
September 25, 2008

After 22 weeks of hard hitting AFL football and 3 weeks of bone crunching finals we are finally at the Mecca of the 2008 AFL season the Grand Final. As early as round 5 this year Geelong and Hawthorn followed by the Western Bulldogs were leading the charge. Most of the sporting public believed Geelong would reach the Grand Final but who would be their opponents? In the end the two best performed are playing off for the Premiership but who will be the victors?
Will the mighty Cats cop a licking from the up and coming Hawks or will their mature and finals experienced bodies be too strong? Geelong has been unreal by winning 21 out of a possible 22 matches and going through undefeated in 2007 and up to now 2008 final series. Hawthorn finished second on the ladder with also a very good record of winning 17 matches for the season and undefeated in their 2008 finals campaign.
Will lightning strike twice?
In 2007 Geelong fell in and looked vulnerable in the preliminary final over Collingwood falling in by 5 points. Port Adelaide had an easy win over the Kangaroos killing them by 87 points. So Grand Final day all the $$$ came for Port Adelaide only to be humiliated by 119 points. This year we have a similar scenario where Geelong was unimpressive over the Western Bulldogs but still won by 29 points. On the other hand Hawks looked awesome demolishing the Saints 54 points and looking in cruise control from half way through the second quarter.
The last times these two teams met was on July 16th round 17 at the MCG  in a thrilling encounter with Geelong winning 12-16-88 to Hawks 11-11-77 thus 11 point victors. There was only 5 points between the teams when Luke Hodge must have seen a vision of his wife giving birth and kicked the football to a Geelong player which sealed the match for the Cats.
I backed Hawthorn that night for the win and at the line of +19.5 and felt robbed as Hawthorn had all the momentum but couldn’t drive the last nail in the coffin. That night Geelong had 3 players missing and Paul Chapman was injured by half time.
Also scoring shots were 22 Hawks to Geelong 28 thus 6 more.
Missing in action were Gary Ablett Jnr ,Cameron Ling, and Darren Milburn and Paul Chapman after ½ time below are there 2008 statistics.
Gary Ablett Jnr averages per game
28.6 Disposals       4.9 Marks           4.5 Tackles          1.2 Goals
Cameron Ling
23.9 Disposals      4.7 Marks          3.5 Tackles            0.7 Goals
Darren Milburn
20.4 Disposals     7.1 Marks           2.1 Tackles          Defender
Paul Chapman (injured for second half)
20.1 Disposals    5.4 Marks         2.8 Tackles           1.8 Goals
Since 2005 Geelong and Hawthorn have met on 5 occasions with Hawks leading 3 wins and 2 losses, the only match at the MCG was the round 17 clash. (Info above)
Geelong form at the MCG last 10 matches
Geelong is 9 wins and only 1 loss.
Average score kicked = 109 points
Opponents average score = 68 points
Thus 41 point average winning margin.
Average total game score = 177 points.
Hawthorn Form at the MCG last 10 matches
Hawks are 7 wins and 3 losses
Average score kicked = 107 points
Opponents average score = 81 points
Thus 26 points average winning margin
Average total game score = 188 points
What about the odds you ask?
Surprise surprise but the best odds the win on Geelong are with the TAB at 1.45.
Hawthorn is only 2.65 with the TAB but Sportsbet in Darwin is 2.95 the win
Geelongs best line = -14.5 with Sportingbet at odds of 1.91
Hawthorn best line = +15.5 with Globalsportsbet at odds of 1.93, but if you wait till Friday all their line betting is 1.95 for up to $1,000 bet.
Crocs final wrap up
We should see a great contest and as I am going to the game with Tony G so I have to have a bet I just can’t help myself. Even though some very good judges see Hawthorn good value at odds of 3.00 or better the win, I am going to have a small bet on Geelong to cover the line at -14.5. So if Geelong doesn’t win by 15 points or more I do my cash. Crocs prediction Geelong 102 points to Hawks 83 points.
By the way Tony G is giving some lucky poker player to join us at the Grand Final in VIP class click on the link below.
Ciao from “The Croc” and Go the Pussy Cats!


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