Sean Callander's Preliminary Finals and Brownlow Medal AFL Preview
Posted at 23:25 2010-09-16
Two vastly different betting games in the all-Victorian preliminary final match-ups at the MCG this weekend – tipping a Collingwood v St Kilda grand final with the Saints to go all the way:
Collingwood v Geelong: There’ll be much easier ways to win on the punt than the opening preliminary final of the weekend. It’s the defending champs of 2009 against the best side of 2010. You can make a statistical argument for either side, and while the Cats have won three of the previous four meetings (including a dominant win in last year’s preliminary final), the Magpies scored a morale-boosting win over Geelong in round 19. The script is written for Collingwood to ascend the Cats’ throne and I’m going with the Pies to win. Taking the extra 2.5 points, and a small play on the +181.5 game total.
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs: I was off the mark with the Bulldogs last week but their win over the Swans barely papered over the cracks that have appeared late in the season. One gets the feeling that the Bulldogs played their “grand final” last week, and will be exposed by a St Kilda side still smarting from last year’s narrow grand final loss. Recent meetings between these sides have been hard fought low scoring slogs, but not tonight. Taking the Saints at the -28.5 (and custom lines up to 72 points) and loading up on the +158.5 game total (BEST BET).
Brownlow Medal: The bookies look to have the Brownlow market spot on. Our numbers have Dane Swan winning (31-36 votes) from Gary Ablett (27-31 votes) and Luke Hodge (19-25 votes). Bet Swan to win with confidence. But club-by-club “most votes” markets offer some of the best betting opportunities of the year. Some of the best bets include: Michael Rischitelli (Brisbane, $12), Andrew Swallow (North Melbourne, $3.55), Travis Boak (Port Adelaide, $3.25), Nick Dal Santo (St Kilda, $14), Kieran Jack (Sydney, $6), Brian Lake (Bulldogs, $7.50) and Andrew Embley (West Coast, $26).
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