The 2010 season will come to an end for two of the eight sides with cut-throat finals in Perth and Sydney. If there was ever a time to disregard the previous week’s form, it’s this weekend:
• Geelong v St Kilda: The Cats have won eight of their past nine finals over the past three years, including last year’s narrow Grand Final victory over the Saints. But it’s that result that should have St Kilda highly motivated to make it two in a row over Geelong for 2010. Heavy rain is forecast for Melbourne tonight, which only strengthens the Saints’ claims. Having two units on St Kilda at the +18.5, one unit on the Saints to win and one unit on the -160 game total.
• Fremantle v Hawthorn: Two of the most statistical even sides in the competition clash in an elimination final at Subiaco just a fortnight after their farcical meeting in Launceston. What’s changed in two weeks? Not much for the Hawks, who are playing their best footy of the season while the Dockers have regained at least 10 players since the trip to Tassie. Picking Freo at home, but not with much conviction. May make a small play on the tri-bet 15 or under either side.
• Collingwood v Western Bulldogs: A narrow loss to the Hawks last week will have been enough to needle the Magpies back to their best for this qualifying final against the Dogs at the MCG on Saturday night. The battered and bruised Bulldogs have limped into the finals, and have been forced to bring back players not 100 per cent fit. Taking Collingwood at the -25.5 and will custom line up to -48 points. Most sites are offering a game total line of 158.5, and even allowing for a slog in the wet, I’m loading up on the +158.5.
• Sydney v Carlton: Gotta feel for the Swans, who land a home final but have to host it at ANZ Stadium due to an AFL stadium agreement. Tricky game to call – the Swans have been ultra-impressive over the past month while the Blues have lost to three of the eight finalists in the past five weeks. Carlton is coming off a tough trip to Subiaco last week, and I’m swaying back to the Swans in this one. Let’s go with Sydney at a margin of 1-24, and game total of -179.5 (BEST BET).
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