WSOP November Nine - Betting Preview

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October 31 2009

Written to World Poker News by Duff85

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"WSOP November Nine 2009 - Who is your bet?"
October 31, 2009

Whether it’s truth or not, Party Bets is reporting that Phil Ivey winning the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event could leave them in a near million dollar hole. What is confirmed is that the public money has just kept coming for the player widely regarded as the best in the world today. Despite only holding five percent of the chips in play, Phil Ivey will enter the final table on the third line of betting at $6.
According to a spokesperson for Party Bets, “Ivey will be a terrible result for us and we think that the industry as a whole will have massive liabilities. A big name on the final table of the WSOP is always bad news for bookmakers and in fairness they don’t come much bigger than Ivey. We have our fingers crossed that he doesn’t pull off a remarkable comeback. The bottom line is that for us it has to be anybody apart from Ivey.
Some lucky punters managed to jump on Ivey at $176 when betting opened early and when the cards were in the air at the World Series of Poker Main Event, Ivey was a short-price favourite at $101 despite the enormity of the field that he would have to contend with. The now seven-time bracelet winner’s price continued to shorten, as he weaved his way through the massive variance of the world’s biggest live tournament.
Despite all the money for the big name pro, it has to be said that he is the sucker bet. It will take a tremendous comeback for Ivey, who will start with around 40 big blinds, to come back and win the tournament. Even with his tremendous skill factor, those that are taking Ivey at $6 are taking at least $1.50 off a fair bet.
As every serious punter knows, you won’t win long term if you consistently take or place bets that are under value. Still, the public money is supposedly causing Party Bets’ angst.
I’m sure we’re not the only ones quaking in our boots – it doesn’t take long to get six figure liabilities with three figure prices. This would be the worst poker result for a bookmaker in history. Imagine the fear of those that Ivey may have backed himself with, they’ll make our concerns look trivial!” said a Party Bets representative.
And if Ivey is the worst result in history for them, then surely the more likely result of Ivey bowing out short of the World Championship will stand to make the bookies a pretty quid. So where can you find some value to make a few “jolly green giants”.
Put simply, back the favourite. It’s not often that the favourite could be considered over the odds, but with the amount of public dollars chasing Phil Ivey, and the perceived talent of those chasing Darvin Moon, that’s exactly what has happened. Sure, Moon might be an amateur with no big tournament scores to his name, but you have to look at it from the perspective that the guy is sitting with thirty percent of the chips in play.
Consider also that Jamie Gold, a guy who had done nothing before his World Series of Poker victory, and has arguably done less since, came into the 2006 Main Event final table with only around twenty-eight percent of the chips in play, and established pro Alan Cunningham right on his tail. Gold also had to beat out Erik Friberg, Paul Wasicka, and Michael Binger. Of course history shows that Gold, a player of considerably less talent than his opposition in the opinion of many, was able to trash talk his way to glory. Moon may not pack the sledging in his arsenal, but he does hold the big stack, and since 2005 only one chip leader coming into the final table has finished outside of the top four - Philip Hilm in 2007.
Will Moon win the event? Who knows, but what is certain, is that of all the November Nine, Moon is the only one remotely close to what are true odds.
Right now you can get a free $50 to bet with at Party Bets simply by downloading Party Poker. The $50 is free to be used across Party Poker, Party Bets or Party Casino. So why not download Party Poker now and place a cheeky $50 on the November Nine.
If you’re keen for a bet on the November Nine, but not liking the straight up winning option, a full range of prop bets are available including the “Winning Hand” and “Colour of the River Card on the Winning Hand”, are available at Party Bets. You can check out Party Bets WSOP Champion market below:
Darvin Moon (58,930,000 chips) – 4.00
Eric Buchman (34,800,000 chips) – 5.00
Phil Ivey ( 9,765,000 chips) – 6.00
Steven Begleiter (29,885,000 chips) – 7.00
Jeff Shulman (19,580,000 chips) – 7.00
Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000 chips) – 13.00
Joseph Cada (13,215,000 chips) – 13.00
James Akenhead (6,800,000 chips) – 15.00
Antoine Saout (9,500,000 chips) – 17.00

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