The Friday Flutter: Grandest of Grand Final Weekends
Posted at 22:59 2010-10-01
Our regular hosts of the PokerNetwork Sports Betting Show, Sean Callander and Brendan Duffy, have joined forces to bring you a weekly preview of the big action events in the world of sports betting every Friday. If you want more tips be sure to listen in to the podcast each week.
This week the guys have a crack at nutting out some value in the two big deciders to be played this weekend.
AFL Grand Final Replay
Saturday, October 2 – 14:30 AEST
Here we go again after just the third grand final draw in VFL/AFL history. The markets suggest it will be close again, but we’re entering unchartered territory.
Collingwood v St Kilda: The federal pollies have been prattling on about “new paradigms” for weeks, but it’s an apt term to describe the betting on this week’s AFL grand final replay. It’s the first time in 33 years, and the first time in the modern era of sports betting, that an AFL decider has ended in a deadlock. In response, most sites have shaved eight points from the line into 9.5 and dropped the game total line to 160.5.
There are two schools of thought around town – 1) St Kilda will carry the momentum of its second half dominance into this week’s game, or 2) the Saints fired everything in their arsenal at the Magpies and still came up short. I’m leaning towards the latter – neither side will be able to match the intensity of last week’s game, and Collingwood is far better equipped to create scoring chances. If Cloke, Dawes, etc can leave the yips at home for the day, this could even be a blowout. I’m going 180° on last week’s tips, with two units on Collingwood at the -9.5 points and two units on the +160.5 game total and a small play on the Magpies at the over 40-point winning margin.
NRL Grand Final
Sunday, October 3 – 17:00 AEDT
Unlike the AFL, we’re sure that the Rugby League will have crowned a champion by the end of the weekend. There’s some big money coming for the underdog, but will regular season form hold true?
St George-Illawarra v Sydney: The decider pits two opponents who are the polar opposites in nearly every category. While the Sydney Roosters love to score plenty of points, they let their fair share in at the other end. The St George-Illawarra Dragons on the other hand bring in the best defence in the NRL. It’s been an meteoric rise for the Roosters who finished last year with the wooden spoon, while the Dragons are looking for redemption after failing to shake off the chokers tag with another in a series of embarrassing finals exits in 2009.
Still if history has shown us one thing, not a lot of that will matter when the teams hit the field on Sunday. The NRL Grand final has a history of upsets – Newcastle over Parramatta in 2001, Penrith over Sydney in 2003, and let’s not forget 1999 when the Dragons lost from an almost undefeatable position against a second year Melbourne team.
Maybe that’s why the big money is being wagered on the Roosters. The Roosters have firmed slightly from the opening price and now sit around the $2.30 average price, while the Dragons start favourites at $1.63 on most books. The average spread is 3.5, although the board ranges between 2.5 and 4. Luxbet has opened a total of 36, which was hit down to 35.5 pretty quickly, suggesting that the smart money believes that St George will control the game and play it at their tempo.
For that reason have a go at the Dragons -3.5 and have a dip at Ben Hornby as a nice bit of value for the Clive Churchill Medal at around $19.
Good luck on the punt this weekend! Don't forget to check out Betfair, Bet365, or PartyBets for exclusive deposit offers and free cash from PokerNetwork. Bet365 and PartyBets even let you integrate your poker account with your sports betting roll. Sean Callander and Brendan Duffy have more betting picks from the AFL, NRL, and American and European Sports for you on the PokerNetwork Sportsbetting Show.
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